On October 22, 2020, CCHP’s Senior Researcher Andrei Semenov took part in the PONARS Eurasia Fridays panel discussion on the centre-periphery relations in Russia. The panel included Irina Busygina (HSE-SPb), Stephen Crowley (Oberlin College), and Ekaterina Koldunova (MGIMO) and was hosted by Henry Hale (George Washington University).
Andrei Semenov presented the preliminary results of the project «State Coercion and Mass Mobilization» that examines the Russian regime response to Aleksei Navalny’s 2017-2018 presidential campaign. Using the data from 161 localities across the country, Andrei Semenov examines if the past experience of coercion has an effect on the strategy towards the activists and protesters in 2017-2018. He constructs an «index of coercion», which encompasses preventive, reactive, and on the spot measures against the mobilised citizens, and leverages the cross-sectional variation in economy, population size, and past coercion to predict the overall level of coercion in 2017-2018. The preliminary results though far from being conclusive indicate that the authorities «socialise» in a certain type of strategy and those that used coercion in the past are more likely to deploy higher level of coercion in the future campaigns.
The presentation for the study can be found here.